Saturday, March 14, 2009

They look aggressive to me

They look aggressive to me

I don't know about you, but it's sure as hell seemed to me that Yankee hitters have been far more aggressive at the plate this year. Do the facts back that up? To BRef we go!

There are a few factors that can tell us whether they're being more aggressive. One is how often they're putting the first pitch into play.

- This season, Yankee hitters have put the first pitch into play 459 times in 4045 PAs. That's 11.3 percent. The AL, on average, is putting the first pitch into play 11.7 percent. So the Yankees have actually been slightly more patient in that regard.

Compared to last year, when the Yanks were the best offensive team in baseball, they put the first pitch into play 10.6 percent in 2007. So there has been an increase from last year.

- How often are they having two strike counts?

They're getting to two strikes in 46.7 percent of their plate appearances. The AL is at 47.4 %, so in this respect, the Yanks have been slightly less patient than the AL.

But compared to 2007, there's essentially no difference.

- How often are they getting to full counts? And are they taking more walks on a full count?

In 12.9 percent of their plate apperances, they're going to a full count. The AL is at 12.6 percent; so in this case, the Yanks are slightly more patient than the AL.

Last year, the Yanks were at 14.6 percent, so there has been a relatively significant decrease in full counts.

They're drawing more walks on full counts compared to the AL, but less than they did in 2007.

- What about putting 2-0 pitches into play? Because it seems like DJ swings at more 2-0 pitches than at any point in his career.

They've put 2.84 percent of 2-0 pitches into play this year, compared to 2.82 percent last year. Essentially negligible. While the AL is at 2.73 percent. So the Yanks are still less aggressive than the rest of the AL.

- How many pitches are the hitters seeing per plate appearance?

Some hitters are slightly below their career norms (Jeter, Arod, Abreu), while others are above (Cano, Giambi, Damon), so it pretty much balances out.


So I guess the conclusion is that the lack of offense this year (7th in the AL) is not due to the hitters being either too passive or too aggressive. Is it the aging factor? The injuries?


- Phil Hughes and Carl Pavano made their first rehab starts tonight for the A-ball Charleston Riverdogs. Neither allowed a run in five innings.

Travis G.http://www.blogger.com/profile/17451410553795367839noreply@blogger.com

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Posada officially done

Posada officially done

He'll have shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum and will need about six months to rehab. He should be ready for Spring Training in 2009.

- Damaso Marte is pretty good. In fact, he's the second best left-handed reliever in baseball history!

- Tonight's game was bad. What else can you say? Moose just wasn't fooling anybody. This was a game where Moose needed to scare someone. The hacks the O's were taking, even with two strikes, were indicative of the fact they knew they weren't in any danger. It also didn't help that not one close call (or so it seemed) went Mussina's way.

- Just one phone call away:
Mark Melancon took one more step toward the Bronx when he was promoted to Triple-A Scranton. Chase Wright joined him.
(RAB with the tip.)

Travis G.http://www.blogger.com/profile/17451410553795367839noreply@blogger.com

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Halladay was just too good

Halladay was just too good

But Joba was nearly as good. If not for Posada, Cano and Betemit errors, he walks off with a line of 7 ip, 5 h, 1 r, 0 bb, 9 k. He allowed just one extra-base hit (I'm not counting the double that was lost against the ceiling of the dome). The most encouraging part is that Joba's control is improving: he threw a ridiculous 73% strikes, walked none, and got nine groundouts and just two flyouts. Outside of a sloppy 3rd inning behind him, this might've been his best start.

The Yanks managed a whopping two hits. What next, a run? HA!


Two runs or less counter: 32 out of 93 (34%)

Travis G.http://www.blogger.com/profile/17451410553795367839noreply@blogger.com

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Thoughts on Shock, Barry and football rules

Thoughts on Shock, Barry and football rules

I'm very conflicted when it comes to Barry Bonds. I hated him for tarnishing the game's history with his PED-enhanced record-breaking homeruns. But if I hated him, shouldn't I also hate Jason Giambi and Andy Pettitte, who have admitted and apologized for PED usage? I don't hate Jason and Andy, and here's why: I'm biased toward Yankees (what can I say?), they apologized for their transgressions, they were already on the team at the time (meaning the Yanks would be bringing in a known PED user in Bonds), and didn't break any cherished records, all unlike Barry. Yeah, those are fairly shallow reasons, but reasons nonetheless. I wouldn't like the idea of bringing the Bonds-media circus to the Bronx, but hey, if he helps us win ballgames, he'll be tough to dislike.

- The Giants offense may suffer this year with the loss of Jeremy Shockey, but it was the right move in the long run - and until Jerry Reese fucks something up, I'm going to continue believing he's infallible. Shockey was one of the better tight ends in the game, and also an excellent run blocker. I still remember his first pre-season game when he bowled over some poor Houston DBs as a preview to his career. Unfortunately, he never truly lived up to the hopes of management or fans.

His incessant enthusiasm was fun to watch (usually), but got out of control at times, causing stupid penalties and demands for more passes. His refusals to work out with Eli in New York didn't help either, as the two never seemed to get into a rhythm. Eli would throw left, Shockey would break right. And the worst thing that could have happened to Shockey happened: the Giants won without him. Steve Smith and Kevin Boss proved they could make big catches with the game on the line. They discovered Ahmad Bradshaw was the most explosive player on the team. Eli Manning actually looked comfortable - no one ran back to the huddle screaming for the ball. Football is funny: the Giants lost Tiki Barber and Jeremy Shockey, two of the better offensive weapons over the last decade, and went on to win the Superbowl.

With a year of experience under the belts of Smith, Boss and Bradshaw, a healthy Plaxico, an O-line going into it's second year entirely intact, and with the addition of Mario Manningham, the offense might not skip a beat. I expect we'll see more four and three (with two backs) wide receiver sets.

- Speaking of football offense, this high school has the right idea. They're using six-WR sets with two quarterbacks. If only the NFL was that brave and creative. Although I'm not sure if NFL rules would restrict such creativity. I don't know why the NFL has to be such a stickler for contrived rules. If the offense wants to send nine WRs out for a pass, why shouldn't they be allowed? Where did they come up with the arbitrary rule that five men have to be on the line of scrimmage? Why five? Why not four or six? Imagine how exciting that would be to see nine WRs out there. Maybe because of that, the defense, if they wanted, could blitz just two guys (because there'd be only one blocker, the center). That kind offense would require a mobile QB; it would be perfect for Vince Young and Michael Vick. But what about making a backfield of Eli and Vick, where the defense wouldn't know whether Vick would be running or throwing, if Eli would be throwing or handing it off or throwing a short pass to Vick. And hey, if you don't want to run that crazy offense, there's always the the tried and true I-Form. But it would nice to at least have those options.

Travis G.http://www.blogger.com/profile/17451410553795367839noreply@blogger.com

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a lil' hot stove

a lil' hot stove

The Yankees are considering trying to acquire Seattle lefty Jarrod Washburn, who's been a solid back-of-the-rotation starter during his 11 year career. Apparently, Seattle would be willing to take Igawa, a mid-level prospect and cash. If that's true, the trigger has to be pulled. End the OKei experiment. Washburn has been a Yankee-killer, so this falls under the "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em" category. At worst, Washburn will be a good lefty reliever.

- It's translating! Edwar Ramirez and David Robertson have sick minor league stats, and it seems that with regular work now, it's translating to the Bigs. Nice work by Cash and Girardi. (thanks to Pete Abe for alerting us.) In his last five innings, Robertson has allowed just one hit, two walks and nine strikeouts. Edwar has been even better: over his last 11.1 innings, he's allowed just one hit (including nine straight innings of no-hit ball), two walks and 16 strikeouts.

- Posada's throwing problems could continue "well into 2009".

Travis G.http://www.blogger.com/profile/17451410553795367839noreply@blogger.com

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Wow

Wow

I didn't think hitting a home run out of the Stadium was possible, but Josh Hamilton came as close as I've ever seen, and made me actually believe it was possible. The most impressive was the shot that hit half-way up the wall behind the right-field bleachers.

And what the hell was Rick Reilly thinking? He made stupid and awkward comments throughout the telecast that I'm sure he believed were clever. The first was a diatribe about there being no minorities in the Derby (to which Karl Ravech, after a long, uncomfortable pause, said "Interesting concept.") He followed by slamming Arod, saying something to the effect of 'Arod couldn't put on a show anywhere near Josh Hamilton.' Really? The future all-time home run champ couldn't even come close? Then the final 'Huh?' comment was a knock on atheists; apparently because Hamilton is a born-again Christian, it "was a bad night to be an atheist" according to Reilly.

- Chase Utley cursed out the fans who booed him. That will only hurt him in the long run. New York, especially Met fans, don't forget quickly. He later apologized.

- The NYPD (not surprisingly) felt the need to choke a fan trying to catch a home run in the black seats.

Travis G.http://www.blogger.com/profile/17451410553795367839noreply@blogger.com

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Bad news on a good day

Bad news on a good day

The Yanks won their fourth in a row (12-4 behind another lucky Sir Sidney start), but news came down that Jorge Posada could miss the rest of the season with a labrum injury. Jose Molina will fill in more than adequately behind the plate, but it's at the plate where Posada's loss will be felt most.

- Watched the Trenton Thunder game from July 17 (against Portland) and I just had to expound the virtues of Austin Jackson, who went 4-4 (including two doubles) with a walk. Three of the hits were to right-centerfield and the fourth was a lined shot to center, all on outside pitches. I was extremely impressed with his approach and ability to not only hit the other way, but for power. He looked like a major leaguer. What I didn't see though was his ability to hit inside pitches, which Portland stayed away from entirely. He can clearly handle outside pitches, and if he can handle the inside ones as well, he's a stud in the making.

- If you haven't seen The Dark Knight yet, you're missing out. A great movie, much better than the first, and the critics nailed it: Heath Ledger truly is remarkable as the Joker. I never thought I'd say this, but his Joker is at least on par with Nicholson's.

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Yanks trade Tabata and others for Marte and Nady

Yanks trade Tabata and others for Marte and Nady

The full deal is Jose Tabata, Ross Ohlendorf, George Kontos and Phil Coke. Damaso Marte is an excellent lefty specialist, while Nady is a decent rightfielder. At first glance, I'm not happy.

Nady is having an extraordinarily good season, well out of line with his career averages. His 2008 looks like this: .330/.383/.535 (142 OPS+). Certainly a great season, but Pittsburgh is trading high; his career line is a slightly above average: .281/.337/.456 (108 OPS+). Range Factor shows him to be an above-average rightfielder. He's 29, so is at the peak of his career; it will probably all be downhill after this season. Nady is fairly versatile, having played 3b, 1b, and all three outfield positions in his career. However, with Abreu entrenched in RF, where does Nady play? Left-field, where he hasn't played since 2007 (when he played just 10 games there)?

Marte is an excellent lefty reliever, owning a career 141 ERA+, with 484 strikeouts in 454.1 innings. He absolutely owns lefties: .578 career OPS against them. What about 2008? Not quite as dominant: a .669 OPS against left-handed batters. Is that an aberration? It might be, because in 2007 he destroyed lefties - they had a .352 OPS against him. Ironically, Marte was with the Yanks for half a season before being traded for Enrique Wilson in 2001.

According to Cot's, Marte has a team option for $6 million next year, which will likely be exercised. Nady (as far as I can tell) is arbitration eligible.

Frankly, I don't understand the move because the bullpen is the strongest area of the team right now. Marte might be great, but he also might block guys like Cox, Melancon and Horne who deserve chances once they show they're ready (which should be soon). Both players are at or past their prime, and Nady is having a career year. The Yanks are buying high on Nady and selling low on Tabata and Ohlendorf (who are both having poor years).

Nady won't play his natural position of right-field because of Abreu, so where is he going to play? He hasn't played LF in over a year, so will he be expected to jump right into Yankee Stadium's spacious leftfield? Now that I think about it, he might be the 1b replacement for Richie Sexson, and occasional leftfielder.

- That was the Yanks best start of the year... after Wang's complete game shutout in Fenway of course. Just an incredible game by Joba. THAT'S why he became a starter: 7 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 1 bb, 9 k.

- Back from the dead, Carl Pavano is making a minor league start on Tuesday for the GCL Yankees. Monday will see Phil Hughes also make his first rehab start.

Travis G.http://www.blogger.com/profile/17451410553795367839noreply@blogger.com

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Deja vu

Deja vu

Melky didn't bunt (or hit), neither did Arod, Joba couldn't find the strike zone; apparently Mo can't pitch in a tie game and Posada can't throw out a runner if the game depends on it (oh, wait...).

Now we have to rely on Sir Sidney Ponson to merely avoid a sweep.

Travis G.http://www.blogger.com/profile/17451410553795367839noreply@blogger.com

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Pitiful

Pitiful

The worst pitching staff in the AL just shut down one of the best offenses in baseball. Explain that one to me.

Our pitchers threw a gem - you can't ask any more from Moose, and nine times out of 10, allowing two runs against the Rangers guarantees a win. Not tonight with the suddenly pitiful offense that has managed to plate two runs in the last two games and five in the last three.

These pitchers are simply not good. Oliver Perez' ERA entering yesterday's game was 5.29 (in the NL no less) with a career 93 ERA+, while Scott Feldman (yeah, who?) had a 4.60 ERA entering tonight's game with a career 97 ERA+. They ain't the fucking '65 Dodgers.

Jeter was the goat: 0-4, three weak groundouts and a strikeout with Gardner on 2nd (representing the tying run).

(Speaking of Feldman, I couldn't help thinking of the Bizarro Seinfeld episode - "This is Kevin, Gene... and Feldman.")


- Manny being a shithead.

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Posada wants to catch

Posada wants to catch

But Girardi ain't letting him (yet). It's not just that Molina is a better catcher - he's a much better catcher, so it's hard to blame Girardi.

- Phil Hughes will throw off a mound tomorrow for the first time since April. "The Yankees are hopeful [he'll] return in September." Ugh. Basically another wasted season for him.

Travis G.http://www.blogger.com/profile/17451410553795367839noreply@blogger.com

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Pen blows it

Pen blows it

I spoke too soon. Jose Veras came in and promptly served up a two-run shot that won the game for Pittsburgh. Despite this article's title, it was really the offense that blew it. Two runs off Paul Maholm... Paul Maholm? Arod: 0-4, Cano: 0-4, Melky: 0-4, Molina: 0-4, even Justin Christian and Mike Mussina got hits.

Just when this team looks like it's going to go on a tear, they don't - story of the season.

As Pete Abe astutely pointed out, the Yanks have scored two runs or less 31 times this season (in 92 games). It means they have the slimmest of chances in a full third of their games. That's pathetic, especially with two first-ballot Hall of Famers and several multiple-time All-Stars.

- Great interview with Mark Newman, the Yanks VP of Baseball Operations, as he discussed the farm system. The most intriguing part:
There's a health risk with pitchers, there's a performance risk with hitters. When you see a pitcher in college or high school throw 98, or 95, or 92 with plus movement…if you see a breaking ball that spins, if you see delivery, if you see command, because they're the initiator, we feel confident about that transferring to professional baseball. Pitchers are fragile physically. Hitters on the other hand, high school hitters are going to see an 80 mile per hour fastball most of the time. He's going to hit with aluminum. He's not going to see quality breaking pitches. And he's not going to see a closer coming out of the bullpen that throws as well or better than the starter...

Typically, where we pick, the gold-plated, can't miss position player is already gone. There's some (hitters left), but you feel more certainty with the pitchers.

- For those who don't know, I despise Joe Buck. And here's yet another reason why. He watches 'barely any' sports, and watching sports is 'not part of [his] day, not part of [his] night.' And this guy is FOX's number one sports commentator?! Fine, I understand that he has a job, a baby and a wife, etc., so how about finding someone that does watch sports? I know, a radical idea for FOX.


- Thanks for voting in the Bill Belichick poll. The final tally:
36% - the NFL should asterisk Belichick's New England tenure.
33% - the Pats should be penalized (again) by the NFL. (They already lost a first round draft pick.)
27% - Belichick should be suspended.
19% - the Pats should have their titles stripped.
16% - Belichick should be banned from the NFL.
15% - let the Pats' opponents record their defensive signals (what the Pats were convicted of).
7% - ignore what Belichick and the Pats did.
(it adds up to more than 100 because voters were allowed to choose multiple selections.)


- A good MLB draft recap over at Saber Scouting. Listen at the 12:00 mark when they field my question!

Travis G.http://www.blogger.com/profile/17451410553795367839noreply@blogger.com

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